Granca head coach Néstor ‘Che’ García was seen kneeling on the sideline during the clash against Girona. With four matches left in the Liga Endesa regular season, the worst-case scenario became reality for Gran Canaria after matchday 30. Losses by San Pablo Burgos at the Palau against Barcelona (91-76) and Casademont Zaragoza at home to Covirán Granada (74-85), combined with Morabanc Andorra’s victory in the Principality over BAXI Manresa (104-94) and Granca’s already-known overtime defeat in Málaga against Unicaja (100-101), have created a four-way tie at nine wins in the fight to avoid the last relegation spot. This means that if the four teams finish level, the Canary Islands side would accompany Covirán Granada to Primera FEB, as they have the fewest wins in head-to-head matchups among these teams.
The reason Granca appears 15th instead of 17th (second-to-last) in the current ACB standings, despite being tied with the teams from Aragon, Burgos, and Andorra, is that the previous criterion only applies once all four rivals have completed their games against each other. Since the Andorra-Burgos match in round 32 has not yet been played, the league uses the overall point differential as an interim tiebreaker. Granca sits at -153, Zaragoza at -175, and Andorra at -192, which is why Andorra currently occupies the relegation spot instead of the islanders.
The ideal outcome would be a Burgos victory in Andorra. That would break the tie, and if Granca ends up level on wins with Burgos, they own the head-to-head advantage by a single point. Against the other three teams, they lose the tiebreaker. Under this new scenario, Granca’s relegation risk is almost equal to Andorra’s. Néstor Che García’s team faces an estimated 28% chance of dropping down, needing to win one more game than their direct rivals in the four remaining finals. Their schedule is tough: a Canary Islands derby at home on Thursday, a trip to Lleida, hosting BAXI Manresa at the Arena, and closing the season at Valencia, who might be fighting for second place in the Playoff race.
For Morabanc Andorra, despite being provisionally second-to-last, their recent results give them a 24% chance of relegation, mainly due to the direct clash with San Pablo Burgos at home, where Zan Tabak’s team has been unbeatable in this final stretch. Conversely, Burgos sees their relegation odds rise to 26% for the same reasons Andorra’s dropped. Lastly, Zaragoza’s negative momentum keeps them from breathing easy, though their chances sit at 22% because their direct rivals will take wins off each other, as noted with Andorra vs. Burgos.
Granada deserves a separate mention. Despite being seemingly stuck at the bottom with a 99% probability of relegation, they refuse to give up. A loss in any of their remaining four games would confirm their drop.
